‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Availability.

People queue up to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an Indian city
People wait in lines to buy fuel canisters for domestic use in Chennai.

The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are adopting traditional burners and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

A closed restaurant shutter in an Indian city
A food joint in Chennai which has ceased operations due to a shortage of kitchen fuel.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the government insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and officials say supplies are being reallocated to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by rumors. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the description reads.

An oil tanker at sea representing imports
India brings in up to most of the oil it requires, leaving it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in worldwide shipments.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.

John Herrera
John Herrera

Elara is a historian and writer passionate about uncovering the untold stories of ancient cultures and their impact on modern society.