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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.