How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.

The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

John Herrera
John Herrera

Elara is a historian and writer passionate about uncovering the untold stories of ancient cultures and their impact on modern society.