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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|