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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.